But how good are Aberdeen really? How does the current season compare to previous Aberdeen seasons? How do the Dons compare to other non-Old Firm teams of the recent past?
In this post, I will look at the past 10 years of the Scottish top division to answer these questions.
First, let's see how the current Aberdeen team compares to the previous ten Aberdeen seasons with regard to basic stats versus non-Old Firm teams.
Table 1. Basic Stats
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As you can see from Table 1, Aberdeen this season are better than any previous Aberdeen team going to back 2004-05 in every basic attacking and defensive stat, except shots aginst. This exception is likely a consquence of "score effects," because Aberdeen have taken early leads on several occasions this season, and teams playing from behind shoot a lot.
Table 2. Advanced Stats
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Table 2 combines the data from Table 1 into metrics that provide a more advanced view of team performance (click here to see variable defintions).
The take home message from these stats is that Aberdeen this season are more dominant than any previous Aberdeen team since 2004-05. This is indicated by Total Shots Ratio (TSR) and Shots on Target Ratio (SoTR) values of 0.60 and 0.62 respectively.
To put these exceptional numbers into a broader context, consider these facts:
- Of 102 non-Old Firm top division seasons between 2004-2014...
- Only 2 achieved a TSR > or = 0.60 against non-Old Firm teams
- Hearts, 2012-13, 0.61
- Hibernian, 2006-07, 0.61
- Only 3 achieved a SoTR > or = 0.60 against non-Old Firm teams
- Hearts, 2005-06, 0.61
- Hearts, 2011-12, 0.63
- Hibernian, 2006-07, 0.61
Shot ratios are important because they are the most repeatable aspect of team peformance, i.e., least influenced by random variation or luck, both within and between seasons. The fact that Aberdeen's shot ratios are so high this season bodes well for next season.
So how good are the Dons this season? Really fucking good.
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