The Most Underrated Team in Scotland

Scottish Cup finalists Inverness Caledonian Thistle (ICT) play former SPFL Premiership "title challengers" Aberdeen tomorrow in the Highlands.

A few of us have been talking up ICT on Twitter for a while now. I was even ridiculed by one Twitter pundit for daring to suggest that ICT are just as good as Aberdeen, if not better. 

When ICT subsequently drew and then won against Celtic in the Premiership and Cup respectively, I admit I did feel more than a bit vindicated (obviously my ego trumps my club allegiance).

Looking at the numbers behind the Premiership season so far, I have concluded that ICT are the most underrated team in Scotland, and in this post I'll explain why.

The table below presents performance data for both sides during Aberdeen's "title challenge," from the start of the New Year until their 4-0 defeat to Celtic. As usual, I will focus on the two main drivers of goal dominance, Shots on Target Ratio (SoTR) and PDO, as well as their components (click here to see how these variable are defined).

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As you can see from the table, with regard to shots on target (SoT), ICT were actually better than Aberdeen overall during this period of the season; The Jags had a higher SoTR driven by a superior defense (lower SoT conceded per game). Interestingly, despite Aberdeen's much vaunted attack, the number of goals scored per SoT (score rate) was virtually identical for both teams.

The only aspect of performance in which Aberdeen was significantly better than ICT was save rate (goals per SoT conceded). The Dons' keeper Scott Brown was as good as Craig Gordon (Celtic) or Alan Mannus (St. Johnstone) during this period. However, unlike Gordon and Mannus, Brown was not able to sustain such a high level of performance, and was subsequently dropped for Jamie Langfield. Ouch.

In summary, during Aberdeen's two-month title challenge, ICT performed equal to or better than the Dons in every important performance metric, except save rate. So why were/are the Jags so underrated by pundits and supporters alike?

Here are three possible reasons that I'm throwing out there as food for thought rather than definitive answers.

1. The Table-Never-Lies Fallacy: This is the mistaken idea that results are a true measure of a team's quality. Aberdeen are in 2nd place and ICT in 3rd, so the Dons must be better than the Jags, right? Wrong. Football doesn't work that way. There is too much luck involved. If you don't believe me, then I suggest you read The Numbers Game by Anderson and Sally.
2. The Wee-Club Bias: ICT are a small, provincial club, one of only two Highland clubs in the SPFL Premiership. Aberdeen, in comparison, are a much larger club, part of the so-called New Firm (along with Dundee United). Bigger is better, right? Not necessarily.
3. Wengeritis: This is a mental disease that afflicts many football supporters. It leads to the dogmatic view that "attractive" football is superior to "winning ugly." ICT have been described as "dire" by some afflicted with Wengeritis. Although, to be fair, they do play a form of attacking football, just not the one preferred by some proponents of the Beautiful Game apparently. Aberdeen, in contrast, have been playing some very attractive, free flowing football. Thus, in the minds of some purists, ICT can never be as good as Aberdeen, because the Dons play the "right" way and ICT play the "wrong" way.

Again, these cheeky explanations for ICT's underrated status are meant only as food for thought. 

Here's another morsel for your mind: Who do you think will do better in Europe next season, ICT or Aberdeen? I know who I'm picking.